Matt Ortega

Real Time with Bill Maher returned for another season last night with actor/activist Tim Robbins, NPR’s Michel Martin and Cheney author, Stephen Hayes.

http://alternet.org/mediafiles/fuckUp_31416_25082007.flv

Robbins asserted that Americans were “suckered” into the war with “unrelenting propaganda.” He goes on to argue that Americans would have never sanctioned the war “given the facts.” Hayes contended — in the video at 5:33 — that “Americans supported the war at levels of 75 to 80 percent,” which was meant with groans from the audience and disagreement from Robbins and Maher. To which Hayes said, “Go back and look at the opinion polls.”

So I did.

Polling Report has data as far back as 1998 when President Clinton, along with the British, launched military strikes against Saddam Hussein. Polling data for the Second Persian Gulf War starts in February 2002 but with expanded looks later in the year that includes numbers in 2001.

All, but one, data points are below 75 percent in support of war with Iraq prior to invasion. Gallup reported support of 74 percent in November 2001, on the heels of the September 11 attacks when most Americans believed Saddam Hussein was involved. Support was at 52 percent in February 2001 and 59 percent in June 2002.

FOX News in August 2002 reported high support but nothing made it into the 75 to 80 percent area that Hayes claimed last night. The highest level of support was 74 percent in January 2002. The numbers dipped slightly to 70 percent, 72 percent, 69 percent, 66 percent and 58 percent, in the months of April/May, July, August, and two in September, respectively.

Remember, polling data in late 2003 found FOX News viewers were more likely to believe factually incorrect statements. Also, the network has a funny way of asking questions so as to lead the respondent towards the right answer.

In September 2002, support for military action hit 81 percent in an ABC News poll. However, that support was conditional. The question asked if they would support military action if Saddam allowed in weapons inspectors but then interfered or was uncooperative. It doesn’t exactly say, “Bomb the shit out of him tomorrow.” (In March, ABC News recorded favorable support at 72 percent.)

As the year 2002 wore on, you see a noticeable decline in support for military action in polls across the country. Support falls into the 50s in most polls, and in the 40s in others.

In the final weeks prior to the invasion, overall support for military action hovered around the high-50s and low-60s.

A March 13-14, 2003 poll produced by Newsweek prefaced the question of support with “In the fight against terrorism…” that saw levels of support spike in the mid-to-high 60s with two polls weeks before the invasion hitting 70 percent.

Six days before the invasion, CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed 64 percent favoring the use of ground forces in Iraq. Three days before the invasion, the March 17, 2003 poll released by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal recorded support for military action at 65 percent. The same day, ABC News and the Washington Post showed 71 percent support.

In the context of the discussion, Robbins was arguing that Americans would never have supported starting the war in the first place. The pre-war polling certainly suggests that.

Just days after the invasion, CBS News reported levels of support in the range Hayes described, but these are artificially inflated numbers. Increased support was seen when the U.S. toppled Saddam in the first week of April. In fact, I remember watching the statue of Saddam falling down and feeling very happy for Iraqis. FOX News released a poll following the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime that showed support at 81 percent, up from 76 the week of the invasion.

Either Hayes is arguing that high levels of support after the invasion suggests Americans would have supported the war before the invasion. Or Hayes was suggesting support for the war before the invasion saw levels of support to be in the 75 to 80 percent range.

In the latter case, he was just flat wrong. There were high levels of support before the invasion, yes. But those kinds of numbers were rare, if at all, and were flashes in the pan after events like the initial invasion and the day that Saddam’s regime fell.

(Hat tip: Adam Howard, AlterNet)