Matt Ortega

Hank Shaw of the Stockton Record picked up on last week’s emergency liveblogging Q&A with Congressman Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton, Calif.) following statements that appeared in the Washington Post regarding Iraq. (In the comments section of the Q&A, it is quite obvious that McNerney changed few minds, but was a thoughtful gesture nonetheless.)

This faint praise for President Bush’s “surge” sent the activists into orbit. Hundreds of blog posts began pouring into cyberspace crying betrayal. Hundreds more postings emerged after House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, cited McNerney as among the Democrats who supposedly supported the surge. (Boehner’s spokesman is Brian Kennedy, who worked for Pombo last year.)

Republican use of wavering Democrats on Iraq was to be expected. In fact, it was expected — by everyone but McNerney’s D.C. staff. Plus, I am sure Spokesman Brian Kennedy was pleased to be the one to, personally, stick it to McNerney’s grassroots supporters.

Shaw’s piece continued:

“Oh Jerry McNerney. What is to be done with you?” blogger Julia Rosen wrote on Calitics. “Frankly, I am saddened about this whole thing. It has been clear that all of our work to create communications channels about your Iraq positioning was for naught.”

Blogger Howie Klein at Firedoglake said he’s become “exasperated” with McNerney.

“Jerry was the one who wanted to end the occupation of Iraq,” Klein wrote. “I don’t really have any doubt that he still does. But he’s given lots of other people plenty of reasons to wonder, including many of his earliest and most devoted backers.”

Julia Rosen, quoted in the article, wrote at Ruck Pad earlier today:

This particular article may serve to further depress McNerney’s activist base, but it may help him out in the district. While the majority of the district is in favor of withdrawal, I have a hard time believing that they would get upset over any praise of Bush or talk of cooperation with the Republicans. The article ends pretty strongly for him. [emphasis added]

The helpfulness of this particular article on McNerney’s support within the district will be, I think, marginal at best. But the damage done, or continued, to his online/grassroots base from the last two to four years will further dampen their support for the freshman.

But wouldn’t that prove to be an incredible problem for Jerry next year?

Heading into 2008, McNerney will be without the major backing from the environmental groups as he did last year, and if this trend continues, he will not have the same kind of enthusiastic support from activists online, inside and outside the district.

That means less people willing to part with heavily-contested dollars and less people willing to commit hours in phone banks and precinct walks. Added that the Republicans — statewide and nationally — are licking their chops to take down Jerry, that will all prove to be large hindrances on McNerney’s chances at a second term.

(Disclaimer: Last fall, I worked with the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund in California’s 11th Congressional District in opposition to then-Congressman Richard Pombo of Tracy, Calif.)