Sorry GOP, Immigration Not Your ‘08 Wedge Issue
Republicans, desperate to rally a demoralized base, are faced with the possibility of a pro-choice, gay-friendly presidential candidate — neutralizing two of their historical hot button wedge issues that draw their core supporters to the polls.
In response, the GOP debuted this election cycle’s two-minute hate on Tuesday: immigration. Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for the public discourse, Republicans failed to turn xenophobic bigotry towards Latinos into ballot box success. Democrats made major gains in Virginia and took the Governorship in Kentucky.
Race42008’s DaveG sees the writing on the wall: things don’t look good for the GOP next year.
The truth is, 2007 was a continuation of 2006. Democrats made gains in Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia, three states that were red in 2004 but that padded Democrats’ congressional majorities in 2006. Anyone who thinks that the once-red border states aren’t in play next year need only examine Virginia, which now sports a Democratic governor, one Democratic U.S. Senator, a Democratic state Senate, and which is about to elect another Democratic U.S. Senator next year. Moreover, the Republicans’ grasp on the Virginia House of Delegates is far from solid. Virginia could easily go blue next year. And if Indiana, the most Republican state in the Midwest, continues to give Democrats more and more power, just imagine the state of the GOP in Ohio, which is probably the second-reddest state in the Midwest, but still decidedly less red than Indiana. In other words, if Indiana’s getting bluer, so is Ohio, and Ohio was purple already.
Check that: the GOP lays in ruins in the Buckeye State following yesterday’s pummeling that left Republicans screaming with a bruised and bloodied face, “No Más!”
News reports from the New York Times and the Washington Post declared in unison: immigration is not the wedge issue Republicans were hoping for, but don’t tell DaveG that. To him, immigration is the last, best hope for a wedge issue in 2008.
The other silver lining for Republicans evidenced by this year’s elections, as well as from Hillary’s small but real slump in the polls following the last Democratic presidential debate, is that Democrats may have an Achilles Heel in the immigration issue.
Changes in Senator Hillary Clinton’s (D-New York) polling numbers are not because of the immigration issue itself. Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Connecticut) opposed Governor Eliot Spitzer’s plan driver’s license plan for the undocumented. DaveG’s analysis would hold that Senator Dodd’s numbers should have climbed — yet they haven’t. Her numbers slipped because her answer was seen as “parsing” and triangulation.
It wasn’t her answer that got her in trouble.
It was her lack of an answer at all.
3 Comments, Comment or Ping
DaveG
Matt,
There are several pieces of evidence that support my theory that you have ignored. The most recent poll on the subject shows that 76 percent of Americans oppose the Clinton/Spitzer plan to give illegal immigrants driver’s licenses. This clearly includes a good number of Democrats, meaning that this is an issue that drives a WEDGE between the left of center half of the country, i.e., a wedge issue.
Immigration isn’t a wedge issue in the sense that the beating of nativist drums will result in Republicans winning elections. It is a wedge issue in the sense that, when Democrats are forced to try and figure out what to do about it, the 48 percent of the country that voted for John Kerry breaks apart. My advice to Republicans is to force the Democrats, who now control the majority of House and Senate seats and most governorships, to come up with a solution to the illegal immigration problem. Any solution the Dems propose will divide their portion of the electorate and help the GOP because, as you have demonstrated, there’s a certain segment of the Democratic base that simply will not stand for a compromised, common sense solution on this issue.
(FWIW, I would seal the southern border, identify all of the illegal immigrants here in the country, regularlize most, deport others, and keep levels of immigration low enough for wages to rise and for cultural assimilation to occur. I think a lot of New Deal Democrats would flock to my program.)
November 9, 2007
Matt Ortega
Dave,
Thanks for the response, although I still disagree with you.
I think the polling on the Spitzer plan was flawed. Jonathan Singer at MyDD took a look at the poll that you are citing here.
Respondents were allowed to only give a “support” or “oppose” answer. This leaves out the very critical third component: why?
Spitzer changed his initial plan to a less satisfactorily conceived plan — in an attempt to seek middle ground. Instead, the right was still opposed (and will likely never budge) while he alienated his allies on the left that felt it didn’t go far enough.
I opposed the second plan offered by Spitzer but I don’t oppose giving driver’s licenses to the undocumented out of safety concerns. In the original plan, there were safeguards against the use of these licenses for purposes other than driver’s licenses.
However, Rahm Emanuel, that great ‘architect’ of the 2006 midterm election takeover (he really had very little to do with it as his hand-picked candidates lost, I think, across the board) is pushing Democrats to move to the right on immigration. I would strongly advise against that.
November 9, 2007
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