Asteroids
Posted by Matt Ortega · May 3, 2008
Just months prior to the theatrical releases of disaster flicks, Deep Impact (May 8) and Armageddon (July 1), scientists predicted that Earth may be impacted by an asteroid in the year 2028, a shade over 30 years at the time of the report.
Houston Chronicle, 03/11/98:
Some astronomers say the asteroid will come within 30,000 miles of the Earth, and they agree with Dr. Brian Marsden of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) who says, “Chances are it will miss” Earth.
“The chance of an actual collision is small, but one is not entirely out of the question,” says a notice filed by the IAU.
The energy released upon impact of the asteroid would be comparable to 2 million nuclear weapons, reports stated at the time.
The asteroid, labeled 1997 XF11, was discovered by the University of Arizona, my alma mater, on December 6, 1997. University of Texas astronomers claimed impact, if it would happen, would occur on October 26, 2028 at 12:30 CDT.
“It is the first really big one to pass this close,” says Hills, a Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist. “This is the most dangerous one we’ve found so far. It scares me, it really does. An object this big hitting the Earth has the potential of killing many, many people.”
“It has enormous destructive potential,” agreed Steven Maran of the American Astronomical Society, but he added it will take several more years of observations before experts are certain of its path.
Later observations indicated that 1997 XF11 would bypass Earth by more than a half million miles.
Additional prediscovery observations of the asteroid were quickly found and the present orbit will take the asteroid past the Earth on October 26, 2028 at the relatively safe distance of 930,000 kilometers (580,000 miles), about 2.4 times the Earth-Moon distance.[1][2]
Marsden delivered a speech on October 26, 1998, ten years out from the predicted collision date, describing that, although the asteroid will likely not collide with the Earth, the distance it will come to the planet “will be the closest known for any asteroid or comet estimated to be as large as 2km across.”
Both of the disaster flicks (a favorite genre of mine) are near their tenth anniversaries of their theatrical releases and in heavy rotation on television these days. Check out the opening scene to Armageddon as narrated by the late Charleston Heston, and be sure to check out the original score by Trevor Rabin.
Comments
Leave a Reply