The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake up call for Republicans: Either Congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.
–Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia)
Gingrich Newsletter, 05/06/08
Marc Ambinder posted a graphic that shows a steady decline of Republican youth support in the last three presidential cycles, and a steady increase in Democratic affiliation, according to surveys conducted by Pew Research Center. These numbers show Democrats leading Republicans in party identification of 18 to 29 year olds by a staggering 25 point margin. Republicans dropped seven points in four years.
Notes Ambinder:
Consider: Voters under 30 in the Midwest are twice as likely to call themselves Democrats as they are to identify as Republicans. 63% of women under age 30 identify as Democrats versus just 28% who call themselves Republicans. Democrats even have the affiliation of a majority of young men.
And the widely held belief that the young are more liberal and grow more conservative with age is just unfounded.
A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative? The historical data doesn’t support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected. Politically, today’s cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.
The future does not look bright for Republicans if this trend continues. George W. Bush may have delivered a generation of voters to the Democrats, and sewed the seeds of destruction for the Republican Party.
Read the full report from Pew Research Center for People and the Press.
Stephen Colbert, the satirist and host of The Colbert Report on Comedy Central, claims that candidates receive a “bump” from appearing on the show. It turns out that “The Colbert Bump” actually exists for Democratic candidates.
Henry Farrell sums up the phenomena:
Democratic candidates who appear on the Report receive a statistically significant “Colbert bump” in campaign donations, raising 44% more money in a 30-day period after appearing on the show. However, there is no evidence of a similar boost for Republicans. These results constitute the first scientific evidence of Stephen Colbert’s influence on political campaigns.
(Hat tip: Kevin Drum, Political Animal)
The latest talking point to come from the recesses of the right is that the Democrats are the “party of the rich.” This is all based on a Heritage Foundation “study” printed in the Washington Times, both institutions that are conservative at their core. If it were any more tied to Republican political operatives, it would be printed on Republican National Committee letterhead.
So 84 of 167 of the wealthier House districts are controlled by Dems. That’s a hair over 50% — supposedly proving that Dems are the new party of the “rich.”
But here’s what’s funny about this. Right now, roughly 54% of all House districts are controlled by Dems. So in reality, the percentage of the wealthier House districts controlled by Dems is actually lower than the percentage of districts Dems control overall. What’s more, the households where the median income exceeds the national average are hardly all “rich.” So this chief data point just doesn’t support the claim.
Republicans have long castigated Democratic support for the poor as “wealth redistribution” so you can understand how this complete shift in attack is a bit puzzling to those of us who adhere to logic.
Read Greg Sargent’s take down of this “study” here.
CNN Political Ticker reports that 268 Republicans in Iowa and 68 Republicans in New Hampshire are changing parties to vote for Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) in the Democratic primary.
Sen. Barack Obama’s, D-Illinois, presidential campaign announced today that more than 300 former Republican voters from New Hampshire and Iowa are switching their party affiliation to actively support Obama, D-Illinois, in those crucial first two contests.
“I’ve been a Republican all my life, but the challenges we face are too great to choose a candidate based on his party—we need to the choose the candidate who can bring fundamental change to Washington and start getting things done again,” Jerry Spivak said. “Barack Obama is the only candidate who will be able to break the partisan logjam and inspire Americans to come together around real solutions.”
Friends of mine doubt Senator Obama’s ability to reach Republicans come the general election. This proves that argument false on its face.
(Hat tip: sagereader, Think On These Things)
November 20, 2008
